Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

190
FXUS62 KTBW 041308
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
908 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Southeast low level flow continues across the area this morning
with satellite imagery showing mainly clear skies across west
central and southwest FL, though so scattered cumulus is pushing
in from the southeast along the east coast. Otherwise, it is a
quiet and warm morning across the region as unseasonably warm to
record highs are anticipated once again with highs reaching the
low/mid 90s this afternoon as strong ridging aloft remains in
control.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

An area of low pressure is located over northern New England with
the associated frontal boundary extending southwestward from this
low through western Tennessee and into eastern Texas. A large swath
of severe weather and flooding continues in the vicinity of this
frontal boundary through the day. Closer to home here in Florida, as
we have seen the past few days, broad upper ridging centered off the
Carolina coastline extends from the northeastern gulf, over Florida
and then further eastward to Bermuda. On the surface, a 1030 mb high
pressure center near Bermuda ridges westward through the western
Atlantic, across northern Florida and into the northeastern gulf.
This will keep rain-free conditions, above average temperatures and
breezy southeast winds over Florida for today.

By Saturday morning, the frontal boundary remains stretched between
Ohio and central Texas and will continue to produce severe weather
and flooding over the Ohio River and Mississippi River Valleys. The
high pressure between Bermuda and the Carolinas will keep this
frontal boundary and its effects north of the area, allowing for
rain-free conditions and warm temperatures to continue over Florida
through the weekend. By Sunday evening, the high pressure shifts
east of Bermuda while a cold front approaches the area from the
west. This front will bring us our next chance of showers and storms
starting early Monday morning over the northeast gulf and Nature
Coast and spreading farther south through the day on Monday and
continuing into Tuesday. The front will push south and east of
Florida by Tuesday evening with clearing conditions expected by the
middle of next week. This will also bring an end to the record
breaking heat and cool things down for a few days next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Occasional MVFR CIGs will occur at KTPA/KPIE early in the TAF
period before low clouds scatter out and VFR conditions then
return the region area-wide through the remainder of the day.
Winds will generally be out of the SE today and breezy at times
with gusts around 20 kts or slightly more at times, but winds may
gradually shift to the SW at coastal sites later today as the sea
breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

High pressure ridging across Florida and into the eastern gulf will
dominate the weather today and into the weekend. This will keep rain-
free conditions and breezy southeast winds around 10-15 knots and
seas 2-4 feet across the eastern gulf waters. The next chance of
showers and storms will come next Monday and Tuesday as a cold front
moves through the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Warm weather, rain-free conditions and breezy southeast winds will
continue for today and into the weekend as high pressure ridges
across Florida. RH values will remain above critical levels through
the weekend as well. The only fire concern will be some high
dispersions the next few days due to breezy southeast winds. A cold
front moves through the area next Monday and Tuesday bringing a
chance of showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  71  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  91  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  91  67  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  91  69  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  93  63  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  88  72  87  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
UPDATE/AVIATION...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce